Rising demand for everything from soybeans to steel has sent the cost of hauling dry goods soaring more than 50% this year. Manufacturing, which first picked up in China, is now accelerating elsewhere, and countries are stepping up commodity purchases to rebuild stockpiles after running them down during lockdowns that slowed port operations and hit economic activity globally. Analysts say the rally isn’t over, with rates to carry unpacked commodities like grains, iron ore and coal — known as dry bulk — expected to remain high this year and possibly into 2022. That’s a stark turnaround for a market that slid to a four-year low less than 12 months ago, and comes amid a tight supply of vessels. It’s also happening as the uneven recovery scrambles movements of ship containers, which carry everything from furniture to packed commodities like coffee and white sugar. Freight costs started to recover as top commodities buyer China emerged from the pandemic faster than other countries. Rebounding manufacturing in the Asian nation and huge imports of American crops to feed an expanding hog herd gave dry-bulk rates a first leg up.
Nation’s imports are so big that they helped send the cost of hauling in Panamax ships — those meeting the size limits for the Panama Canal — to the highest level in more than a decade. Some traders have even likened it to the Great Grain Robbery of the 1970s, when the Soviets quietly bought millions of tons of American supplies. Big American corn shipments in the second quarter will also coincide with increasing coal volumes, another commodity that helped boost the cost of dry bulk shipping. A trade spat between Australia and China left more than 70 ships carrying over 8 million tons of coal stranded late last year, reducing the supply of vessels. While that situation has eased, roughly 35 carriers remained stranded and unavailable to take on new trips as of earlier. The uneven recovery has also brought some surprises. China fired up its steel mills well ahead of other countries, creating a massive difference between prices there and in North and South America. At the same time Americans and Europeans started buying up China-made goods online during the pandemic, snarling traffic for containers commonly used to ship steel products.