Around 9mn b/d of crude is shipped every day from the world’s biggest oil producing region to the top importer, passing by countries that account for almost half of global crude import demand, but which are also home to rising nationalism, festering territorial conflicts, and intensifying superpower competition between the US and China for primacy in Asia. Local conflicts notwithstanding, the common theme driving regional instability is China’s attempt to carve out a place in the world commensurate with its economic heft. The world’s second-largest economy and top energy importer is operating within global economic and political structures shaped by the US after World War 2, when China was mired in civil war. And as China moves towards regaining the top spot in the global economy that it occupied for much of the past 1,000 years, it is increasingly attempting to shape those structures to its own benefit.
Energy importers in the region are trying to manage the rising risks by diversifying their supply sources, although with limited success. China is increasingly sensitive to the risks that stem from its heavy oil and gas import dependence. Its latest five-year plan includes a section on energy security for the first time and refers to the importance of securing “critical chokepoints” along import routes. South Korea — where imports cover more than 90pc of energy and natural resource needs — has focused on strengthening energy ties with exporters such as the US and countries in the Middle East, its foreign ministry says. India is scrambling to diversify oil imports and boost domestic supplies, with minimal success. The increased tension in the Taiwan strait, along with US-China rivalry in the South China Sea, has also highlighted the risks to energy security in Japan, which relied on Middle East suppliers for 92pc of its 2.5mn b/d of crude imports last year (see table). Policy advisers to Japanese premier Yoshihide Suga are urging the government to look for alternatives to the main import routes through the strait of Malacca and the South and East China seas.