Post-pandemic surge means China’s emissions reached a new record high of nearly 12bn tonnes (GtCO2) in the year ending March 2021. This is some 600m tonnes (5 per cent) above the total for 2019. The analysis is based on official figures for the domestic production, import and export of fossil fuels and cement, as well as commercial data on changes in stocks of stored fuel. CO2 surge reflects a rebound from coronavirus lockdowns in early 2020, but also a post-Covid economic recovery that has so far been dominated by growth in construction, steel and cement. If emissions in 2021 as a whole match the growth seen over the past 12 months, there would be little room for further increases to 2025, under the targets of China’s 14th five-year plan.
China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production grew by 14.5 per cent, relative to the same period a year earlier. This is shown by the red column in the chart, below. Changes for previous quarters are in blue, highlighting the impact of coronavirus lockdowns in the first quarter of 2020. This estimate of quarterly emissions growth is consistent with, but somewhat lower than figures published recently by the independent Carbon Monitor academic research group, which provides estimates of “real-time” emissions data. Even against the pre-pandemic first quarter of 2019, January-March 2021 posted growth of 9 per cent, showing that the increase this year is not only a rebound from the impact of lockdowns in 2020. The latest increase helped push China’s emissions to a new record high of nearly 12GtCO2 in the 12 months to March 2021, as shown in the chart below. This is nearly 600MtCO2 (5 per cent) higher than the total in 2019, which was unaffected by the coronavirus pandemic. CO2 emissions estimates are based on National Bureau of Statistics default calorific values of fuels and IPCC default emissions factors. Cement CO2 emissions factor is based on 2018 data.