Despite skyrocketing commodity prices, which could bog down the transition to clean energy in the future. With 290 GW in additional capacity expected to be commissioned by the end of the year, 2021 will smash the record for renewable electricity growth that was just set last year. This year’s additions even outpace a forecast that the International Energy Agency (IEA) made in the spring. Solar continued to dominate in 2021, with an expected record growth of nearly 160 GW. It made up more than half of all the renewable energy capacity added this year, a trend that the IEA thinks will continue over the next five. Renewables will likely make up 95 percent of new power capacity globally through 2026, according to the new report. The IEA also predicts explosive growth for offshore wind capacity, which could more than triple over the same time.
There are some dark clouds in the IEA’s new forecast for renewables. Soaring prices for commodities, shipping, and energy all threaten the previously rosy outlook for renewable energy. The cost of polysilicon used to make solar panels has more than quadrupled since the start of 2020, according to the IEA. Investment costs for utility-scale onshore wind and solar farms have risen 25 percent compared to 2019. That could delay the completion of new renewable energy projects that have already been contracted. If commodity prices stay high over the next year, it could erase three to five years of gains solar and wind have made, respectively, when it comes to affordability. A dramatic price drop for photovoltaic modules over the past few decades has fueled Solar’s success. The transition to renewable energy needs to speed up significantly to meet the scale of the climate crisis. Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels need to virtually disappear by the middle of the century to avoid catastrophic climate change.