Thailand’s economy shrank in the first quarter from a year earlier as coronavirus outbreaks hurt consumption and tourism, but the fall was less than expected. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy contracted 2.6 per cent in the March quarter from a year earlier, data from the National Economic and Social Development Council versus a forecast 3.3 per cent drop in a Reuters poll. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, beating the 0.8 per cent drop forecast by economists. The agency cut its GDP outlook for the full year to 1.5 per cent to 2.5per cent from a previous forecast of 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent growth.
The OECD does not make a separate forecast for Thailand as our economic size is only 0.56% of global GDP. But if the OECD does make a forecast for the Thai economy, it will be far from accurate as the organization does not understand our economic fundamentals. According to my analysis of available data from the Bank of Thailand, the economy in 2021 will not rebound from a negative growth of 6.1% last year and could risk facing a financial crisis like in 1997.